GenieKnows Games Narrowing the field

An article was brought to my attention concerning the future of video gaming. The author of the article made some rather interesting arguments and predictions which I would like to explore.

The numbers are startling: According to video-game tracking site VG Chartz, Nintendo has sold an astonishing 20.9 million Wii game consoles worldwide, while Microsoft has sold 16.9 million Xbox 360s and Sony has managed to move just 9.8 million PlayStation 3s (PS3).

Yet before the PS3 launched in November 2006, many respectable gaming pundits were convinced Sony would retain its decade-long domination of console gaming. Sure, the PS3 was expensive, but it was loaded with features, like high-definition DVD playback and a hyper-fast 3.2 gigahertz processor.

While there is no denying that the Nintendo Wii is a runaway success, the PS3 is not the dismal failure that many have claimed it to be. First we need to realize that the Xbox 360 was released on November 22, 2005 almost a year earlier than the PS3. Looking at the data shows that that the PS3 is selling on par or above past Xbox 360 sales. With Blu ray winning out on the format war, price cuts to the PS3 model and some highly anticipated games coming out in the near future, the PS3 is bound to have a surge in sales.

Predicting the future is never easy, and it's particularly difficult in the fast-paced world of video games. But the runaway success of the Wii highlights some trends that will be very important over the next decade, as the gaming industry matures and becomes more mainstream.

First and foremost, expect the demographics of the average video gamer to change significantly. The Wii's motion-sensitive controller has gotten a lot of credit for being technologically innovative, but its real genius is that it opens up gaming for people who wouldn't normally play video games.

The Wii has certainly opened the market for people who typically uninterested in play video games. Not only has the Wii formed a new demographic that developers can design games for but the Wii has also brought more mainstream attention to consoles and video gaming in general. Stores unrelated to video games now carry consoles and some even display them in the front which a decade ago would have been unheard of.

The smartest game makers are also "thinking outside the screen." In 10 years, mashing buttons to control on-screen avatars will no longer be enough. Gamers will insist on being able to "feel" a game, or to "move" realistically within it. We already have force-feedback steering wheels, guitar-shaped controllers and pressure-sensitive dance pads. In the future, expect much more.

I agree that gamers want to have a more immersive experience via motion control but I think this kind of control is still a while from becoming the main stay of consoles. In the land of gaming, functional controls reign supreme. The Wii is a step in the right direction for motion controlled games but there is a reason why you can still use your GameCube controller - the Wii mote is not optimal for every type of game. Motion control will have to develop the reliability of a gamepad before gamers will fully make the switch.

PC games are going to grow in importance, especially for older, more educated gamers. After being widely dismissed as dead (or irrelevant at best) only five years ago, PC role-playing games have made a tremendous comeback.

I've always viewed PC gaming as a niche market but it is by no means “dead” as many console enthusiasts like to put it. World of Warcraft, arguably one of the most popular PC games in recent times generates an estimated profit of over one billion dollars a year with over 10 million subscribers. Putting this into perspective, Microsoft has 10 million Xbox Live gold subscribers meaning one game on the PC has the same amount of users as the entire Xbox Live gold service and generates more revenue.

Going forward, expect multiplayer online games to merge with each other and with social networking sites like Facebook and LinkedIn. The result will be a virtual meta-universe where your dragon-slaying, 67th-level Paladin from "World of Warcraft" will be able to seamlessly cross an electronic bridge and end up in a suburban kitchen worrying about the dirty dishes in "The Sims Online."

I can understand the ties between gaming and social networking sites. There are already applications in Facebook which allow you to show off many of your gaming triumphs. This idea that somehow you can crossover characters from one game to another in terms of your "67 Paladin ending up in a suburban kitchen in The Sims Online" is downright ridiculous and something maybe a child would dream up. Not only is this impossible from a technological perspective but it's also not practical in a business sense.

And as the young people who grew up playing these games embark on their careers, they will begin to establish business and social connections through the same networks. Don't be surprised if, within a decade, you find yourself jetting off to Singapore to meet with members of the "Dark Brotherhood" and close a business deal.

Another bold prediction: Within 10 years, guilds formed on "World of Warcraft" or other online games will become offline political forces. Especially in Asia, look for these groups to start agitating for social change.

Where to begin here? I'm never one to completely rule out things but the likelihood that someone will be conducting business with their guildmates who they spent nights slaying bosses for "epic" loot is almost zero.

The notion that guilds will somehow become political forces in a decade is laughable at best. First we need to realize that all guilds die at some point within a game and while people form friendships with certain guild members, these friendships rarely translate into real life friendships. Not only do they not translate into real life friendships but they usually fade as people quit the game or move on to another guild. The reality is that people are generally not going to keep in touch with each other over the course of a decade. Even if an entire guild somehow managed to last a decade together, who's to say that they're interested in politics at all or that they even share common political beliefs and are willing to act upon them?

I think if I were to make any predictions on the future of gaming it would be that as video games generate increasing levels of profit, gaming will begin to saturate more into the mainstream casual market and gamers will lose the social stigma of being associated as “lazy basement dwellers”.